U.S. President Donald Trump embarked on a high-profile tour of the Middle East, After securing a second term in office. The visit served as a powerful demonstration of how Trump wishes to present himself on the global stage. He was received with grand ceremony, offered investment promises worth hundreds of billions of dollars, and showered with laudatory statements.
However, not all countries have taken similar steps, even with the warm welcome from Gulf leaders. China, for instance, avoided engagement with the U.S. president and didn’t prais Trump. Despite the concerns of a global recession stemming from the tariffs enacted by both nations, Beijing kept silence.
Though without accolades, Donald Trump ultimately yielded. Last Monday, American and Chinese officials achieved a significant agreement to lower reciprocal tariffs at Lake Geneva.
This raises a pressing question—flattery or confrontation? Nearly four months into Trump’s return to the White House, world leaders remain uncertain about how best to handle him.
Trump is unpredictable and mercurial. His stated goal is to restructure the global order, and he seeks deals across a wide spectrum—from trade agreements to conflict resolution.
Some nations, like those in the Gulf, have opted for appeasement: announcing trade agreements and organizing elaborate receptions to appeal to Trump’s ego. Others, however, are choosing confrontation, ready to take greater risks.
John Alterman, director of the Global Security and Geostrategy Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, remarked, “It’s like playing poker. It’s not just about the cards, but also reading your opponent’s intentions.
Trump takes things very personally. Different countries have different tools and goals, and they’re all trying to navigate their own path.”
For example, the United Kingdom has taken proactive steps to keep Trump on its side, quickly securing a trade deal. Although limited in scope, Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer told Trump the agreement was “a symbol of respect for your leadership.”
Meanwhile, the European Union is treading an entirely different path. It believes that prolonged negotiation may yield better results from the U.S.—even if that strategy carries some risks.
Global leaders now recognize that while dealing with Trump may be complex, reestablishing ties is still possible. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has improved relations with Trump despite a heated exchange at the White House back in February.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, who ran an anti-Trump campaign during his recent election win, nevertheless managed to earn Trump’s respect during a subsequent U.S. visit. Though Carney rejected Trump’s jab that Canada should become the 51st U.S. state, Trump appeared to appreciate his firmness.
Peter Rough, Director of the Europe and Eurasia Program at the conservative Hudson Institute in Washington, stated, “Trump wants to reopen discussions on matters long considered settled. He’s clearly opposed to conventional norms, and there’s no standard formula for how to respond to that.”
Rough added, “Trump likes to keep multiple negotiation channels open. He takes a strong stance in each and accepts whatever he can get. But I believe if countries respond too harshly, they could harm their own interests. Offering the U.S. substantial proposals and engaging in flexible discussions may be more effective.”
Autocratic Gulf nations, in particular, seem most eager to please Trump. Despite dissatisfaction over the U.S.’s pro-Israel stance in the Gaza war, these countries have long seen the U.S. as their primary security guarantor and a top investment destination.
Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) have welcomed Trump warmly since his first term, largely due to their discontent with the Obama administration. They believe they can navigate Trump’s transactional diplomacy. They also appreciate his silence on human rights and non-interference in their domestic affairs.
Trump and Ego
In Trump’s first term, Qatar found itself marginalized, facing regional isolation. Now it’s seeking to repair those damages.
In May 2017, Trump traveled to Riyadh and delivered a forceful anti-Iran speech at a regional summit. Following that, Saudi Arabia and the UAE imposed an unprecedented blockade on Qatar, accusing it of financing terrorism and maintaining close ties with Iran.
At the time, Trump labeled Qatar a “high-level sponsor of terrorism,” though Qatar denied the accusations. Notably, the largest U.S. military base in the region is situated in Qatar.
In an apparent bid to win favor, Qatar has offered the U.S. a new aircraft to replace the aging Air Force One. The White House is considering the proposal, although critics have called it a blatant example of corruption.
Last Wednesday, Qatari Emir Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani met with Trump in Doha. The U.S. motorcade was welcomed with camel parades and red cybertrucks. The Emir praised Trump’s diplomatic acumen, saying, “I know you are a man of peace.”
Christopher Chivvis, Director of the American Statecraft Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, noted, “The Gulf visit and royal reception align perfectly with Trump’s diplomatic desires, fulfilling his aspiration for global prestige.”
Chivvis continued, “They treat Trump not just as a head of state, but as a member of royalty. This approach likely has a strong impact. He represents the nouveau riche seeking to establish a place among the global elite.”
Trump’s infamous “Freedom Day,” during which he imposed tariffs on nearly all imports, continues to rattle America’s trade partners. Initially, the White House imposed a blanket 10% tariff, later adding country-specific tariffs, which Trump labeled as “reciprocal tariffs.”
When global stock markets plummeted and bond markets turned volatile, Trump suspended the additional tariffs until July and began discussions with interested nations for alternative solutions.
Ed McMullen, U.S. Ambassador to Switzerland during Trump’s first term, said, “Once people understood what the President was aiming for, key nations came together, engaged the major players, and found a way forward. That’s where we are now.”
The UK quickly secured the first trade deal this month, hoping it would bolster Starmer’s lukewarm popularity at home. However, Whitehall officials believe those who wait patiently may ultimately strike better terms with the U.S.
British officials report that top-level communications between U.S. and British leaders are now more frequent than during the previous Democratic administration, with regular calls and messages being exchanged.
The British government views this ongoing dialogue positively, though acknowledges it must work harder to decipher Trump’s inner circle, given the rapidly shifting influence among his advisers.
From a security perspective, British officials emphasize the urgency of slowing down the withdrawal of U.S. military forces from Europe. Rebuilding European defense would take years, so maintaining close ties with Trump is deemed more beneficial than criticizing him. As one official put it, “We have to hug him tight.”
In Brussels, the initial panic over Trump’s tariffs has matured into a more measured strategy. Trump’s relatively softer stance on Ukraine—despite earlier hostility and support for a pro-Russian peace deal—has also raised hopes that he may now be more flexible on trade and other matters.
EU officials say they’ve learned three key lessons from trade negotiations, mainly drawing from the strategies of China and the UK.
First: don’t provoke Trump unless you’re prepared for more economic damage.
Second: it’s better to wait for Trump to calm down on his own, rather than asking him to do so.
Third: rushing into deals often results in weak, incomplete agreements on poor terms.
EU diplomats are now coordinating closely with like-minded partners such as Japan to share experiences and develop joint strategies. This is especially important since Trump’s negotiators often hold unclear positions on specific issues.
One EU official criticized the UK’s approach to talks as “disastrous,” adding, “It proved our shift from boldness to cautious strategy was the right move.”
On Thursday, Polish Deputy Trade Minister Michał Baranowski stated, “We can afford to be cautiously optimistic. There are signs from America of de-escalation. I believe discussions between the EU and the U.S. are now gaining momentum.”
Still, Trump allies say that under the leadership of Ursula von der Leyen, the European Commission must do more to win favor with the White House—and dig deeper if it wants a deal.
Ambassador McMullen remarked, “The EU is stuck. Many independent nations are eager and able to negotiate separately, but a loud, combative leadership like von der Leyen’s is blocking them. It’s simply not working.”
He added, “I hope she learns from Switzerland and the UK. Fighting Trump is a waste of time.”
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